Toby Samuel vs Jay Clarke Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Jay Clarke has a second serve success rate of 41.94% in recent months, just slightly below Toby Samuel's 42.91%. Could this marginal difference influence the game's outcome? Possibly, as effective second serves are crucial.
• In winning points on first serve returns, Clarke and Samuel are nearly tied, with 28.49% and 28.54%, respectively. This similarity suggests their serve return abilities are equally matched.
• Jay Clarke outperforms Toby Samuel in winning opponent's second serve points, managing 47.23% compared to Samuel's 45.31%. Could this give Clarke a return game edge? Quite likely, as second serve returns are pivotal.
• Both players demonstrate similar resilience under pressure: Clarke saves 50.16% of breakpoints, whereas Samuel saves 49.12%, implying they handle critical match moments comparably well.
• Clarke's match winning rate over the past year sits at 66.67%, in contrast to Samuel's superior 76.12%, indicating Samuel may have a better recent overall performance.
• Looking at surface preferences, Clarke excels on Clay with a 67% win rate, while Samuel has his best on Hard surfaces, winning 67%. This could be significant depending on the match surface type.
• Samuel has higher success in Futures/Satellites ($10K level), winning 80% of matches there, while Clarke wins 57.14% at the Challengers/ITF level > $10K, highlighting Samuel's dominance in lower-tier tournaments.
• In terms of opponent difficulty, Clarke competes against players averaging a rank of 397.62, whereas Samuel's opponents average ranks are slightly stronger at 370.18.
• If this match extends to a deciding set, Clarke has a historical winning rate of 62% compared to Samuel's 42%, possibly giving Clarke a psychological edge in tight situations.

Editorial Prediction (November 22, 2025, UTC):

Toby Samuel displays a slight edge in overall match-winning percentage and marginally better performance with recent second serves. This suggests a solid foundation for success in current forms.

Despite Jay Clarke's superior performance on return games and deciding set situations over the past year, the match level and opponent-ranking statistics favor Samuel, who has faced slightly tougher competition.

Surface conditions and current form during the ongoing event are critical unknowns that could swing the match in either player's favor, especially considering Clarke's potential advantage in pressure situations.

Based on the collected data and assuming neutral conditions, Toby Samuel appears slightly more likely to secure a victory in this upcoming matchup.